Home sellers now exceed buyers by most in 12 years, report says

A New Era in Real Estate Supply and Demand

After years of fierce bidding wars and soaring home values, the U.S. housing market is showing signs of a dramatic shift. According to a new report from Redfin, as of April 2025, there are nearly half a million more home sellers than buyers—marking the widest gap recorded since Redfin began tracking in 2013. This data signals a possible slowdown in the housing market, not due to lower prices, but because of declining buyer activity. The imbalance reflects a deeper affordability crisis compounded by fears of a recession and growing global trade tensions.

Rising Prices Persist Despite Falling Demand

Even though buyer demand is cooling, home prices have continued to climb. In April 2025, the median price for existing home sales hit $414,000—up 1.8% from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors. This marks the 22nd consecutive month of annual price increases and sets a record high for April. The resilience of home prices suggests that while demand has softened, sellers are still holding out for premium offers, even in a market where buyers are becoming more hesitant.

Mortgage Rates Add to Buyers’ Burden

One of the key reasons for buyers pulling back is the rising cost of borrowing. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is now hovering just below 7%, making monthly payments significantly more expensive. As volatility in the bond market threatens to push rates higher, many potential buyers are waiting for a more favorable lending environment. These elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership less attainable for first-time buyers and have discouraged move-up buyers from entering the market.

Construction and Builder Confidence Slump

Housing construction is also slowing in response to this uncertain climate. The U.S. Census Bureau reported an 11.4% drop in housing starts in March 2025. Builders like D.R. Horton have reported disappointing earnings, reinforcing the notion that the red-hot post-pandemic building boom is losing steam. Aerial views of construction sites in cities like Austin, Texas, show numerous homes in progress, but many are sitting unfinished or unsold. The building sector, once a strong engine of the housing rebound, is now recalibrating amid weak demand and high costs.

Buyers Hesitate Amid Economic Uncertainty

Beyond rising costs, consumer confidence is also taking a hit. Volatility in the stock market, instability in bond yields, and fears of inflation driven by trade policies—such as Trump’s proposed tariffs—have all contributed to economic anxiety. According to a recent Bank of America survey, 75% of prospective homebuyers are choosing to wait, hoping that both prices and mortgage rates will come down. Spring, usually the peak homebuying season, is now marked by caution and delay instead of activity.

Inventory Swells While Interest Dwindles

As supply piles up, buyer interest remains historically low. Redfin reports that the number of homes on the market hasn’t been this high since March 2020, while the number of active buyers is at its lowest point since 2013—excluding the market freeze in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using pending sales data and buyer activity timelines, Redfin estimates that the current ratio of sellers to buyers could signal a price correction in the coming months. A cooling market no longer guarantees multiple bids or rapid sales.